Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia Prediction and Betting Tips – 11 August 2026
Introduction
Kairat Almaty and Levski Sofia meet on Tuesday, 11 August 2026, with a place in the UEFA Champions League play-off round at stake.
Levski travel to Kazakhstan with a 1-0 advantage from the first leg in Sofia. Serginho scored the only goal in the 92nd minute, finishing a move created by Mazire Soula and finally giving the Bulgarian champions the reward their performance deserved.
The scoreline tells only part of the story.
Levski had 71% possession at Georgi Asparuhov Stadium, won the shot count 11-1, registered all four shots on target in the match and took seven corners to Kairat’s one. Kairat did not manage a single attempt on target.
That makes the second leg fascinating.
Kairat are only one goal behind, so the tie is clearly alive. A one-goal Kairat victory after 90 minutes would force extra time, while a win by two or more would send the Kazakh side through. Levski qualify in normal time with either a victory or a draw. UEFA has confirmed 11 August as the date for the Champions Path second legs in the third qualifying round.
There is also an unusual venue situation.
Kairat will not play the return at their regular Central Stadium in Almaty. The fixture has been moved to Turkistan Arena, with kick-off scheduled for 20:00 local time in Kazakhstan and 18:00 in Bulgaria. Levski travelled by charter flight on Sunday, giving Julio Velázquez’s squad two days in Kazakhstan before the match.
In practical terms, that takes something away from the usual Kairat home advantage. There should still be strong local support, but the players are not returning to the surroundings in which they normally play their domestic and European home matches.
Readers following Champions League predictions Malaysia should therefore be careful with the simple idea that Kairat must be backed because they are now at home. The first-leg numbers, Levski’s current form and the neutralised venue factor point towards a much closer second leg.
My starting position is that Kairat should improve offensively, but Levski have enough pace and control to avoid defeat.
This preview was updated on 9 August 2026. Final injury information and confirmed starting elevens should be checked after the official team sheets are released.
Summer Changes
Kairat Almaty
Kairat entered the summer with considerably more continuity than many Champions League qualifying teams.
Rafael Urazbakhtin has retained a group containing experienced centre-back Aleksandr Martynovich, Brazilian defender Lucas Áfrico, Luís Mata, Janne-Pekka Oksanen, Marc Gual and Edmilson. UEFA’s current European squad also includes young players such as Olzhas Baibek, Oiva Jukkola, Aleksandr Mrynskiy and Damir Kassabulat.
The team has also added Gustavo Mendonça to midfield.
The 23-year-old Portuguese player is registered with Kairat for the Champions League and began receiving European minutes during the tie against Omonia. His technical profile gives Urazbakhtin another player who can help move possession through midfield rather than relying entirely on direct attacks.
Kairat’s problem is not really a lack of experience.
Several members of this squad played Champions League league-phase football last season. Martynovich, Oksanen, Gual and Edmilson understand the level, while the club’s UEFA squad contains players who have accumulated plenty of European minutes.
What must change is the attacking ambition.
In Sofia, Kairat allowed Levski to dictate almost the entire game. Twenty-nine percent possession can be acceptable for an away side protecting a useful result, but producing only one shot across 90 minutes is a different matter.
That approach cannot simply be repeated in Turkistan.
Kairat need at least one goal, which means Oksanen and the other midfielders have to move the ball forward earlier, while Gual and Edmilson need more support around the penalty area.
Levski Sofia
Levski’s summer recruitment has already changed the attacking level of the Bulgarian champions.
Reinaldo arrived in June on a contract through 2029 after playing in Portugal, while David Kusso also joined from Chaves. Serginho, Mehdi Moubarik and Alex Centelles were among the other June additions.
Several of those new players have made an immediate impact.
Serginho has scored important goals domestically and was the match-winner against Kairat. Reinaldo scored twice in the 4-0 Champions League victory over Borac and has continued contributing in the Bulgarian league.
Levski’s depth is now particularly useful because Velázquez is balancing domestic football with European qualification.
The 2-0 league victory against Lokomotiv Plovdiv on 7 August was a good example. David Kusso and Reinaldo scored, while players heavily involved against Kairat — including Serginho, Everton Bala and Reinaldo — could be managed from the bench before entering during the second half. Levski have won all four of their opening league matches and remain top of the early standings.
That rotation matters more than it might appear.
The journey to Kazakhstan is demanding, but Velázquez has not been forced to run exactly the same starting XI into the ground every three or four days. He has legitimate alternatives in almost every attacking position.
The core of the defensive structure has also remained stable.
Svetoslav Vutsov is established in goal, Kristian Dimitrov provides leadership at centre-back, while Gasper Trdin and Mehdi Moubarik offer different midfield profiles.
Levski are not travelling to Turkistan merely to survive. Their squad is now built well enough to threaten Kairat whenever the home side become too aggressive.
Team Form
Kairat Almaty Form
Kairat’s domestic form before this tie has been strong.
Their confirmed league results during June and July included a 4-2 win at Kyzylzhar, a 3-1 victory over Okzhetpes, a 5-0 home win against the same opponent, a 3-1 victory at Atyrau and a 2-1 success against Ordabasy.
European football has been much tighter.
Kairat began the Champions League campaign by beating Sutjeska 2-1 at home and 2-0 away. They then lost 1-0 at Omonia in the second qualifying round before responding with a 1-0 victory in Kazakhstan and eventually winning the tie on penalties.
The first match against Levski continued that low-scoring European pattern.
Kairat defended for long periods but never developed enough possession to push Levski backwards. Their one total attempt and zero shots on target were their biggest problems, not the stoppage-time goal itself.
Urazbakhtin now has to find a balance.
An immediate all-out attack would be dangerous because one Levski goal would force Kairat to score three times to qualify in 90 minutes. At the same time, another passive first hour would allow the Bulgarian side to run down the clock without experiencing serious pressure.
Kairat’s most likely approach is therefore controlled aggression: higher pressing than in Sofia, more players around Gual and Edmilson, but without turning the match into a series of end-to-end attacks from the first minute.
Levski Sofia Form
Levski’s competitive record is one of the strongest arguments in their favour.
They have not lost a Champions League qualifier this season.
Their European run has included a 1-1 draw away to Borac Banja Luka, a 4-0 home victory in the return, a 1-0 win against Universitatea Craiova, a 2-2 draw in Romania and the 1-0 victory over Kairat.
That is five Champions League qualifiers without defeat.
Just as importantly, Levski have shown they can play different types of matches. They dominated Borac at home, protected a narrow advantage against Craiova and then controlled possession against Kairat.
Domestic form is equally positive.
The Bulgarian champions have started the league season with four victories from four matches. Their latest was Friday’s 2-0 success over Lokomotiv Plovdiv, with Kusso scoring early and Reinaldo adding the second in stoppage time.
Vutsov also made important late interventions to preserve the clean sheet.
That is useful preparation for Turkistan because Levski may need their goalkeeper during periods when Kairat have their strongest pressure.
The main warning is psychological.
A 1-0 advantage can encourage an away team to become too conservative. If Levski drop onto the edge of their penalty area immediately and stop trying to retain possession, they will invite far more pressure than they faced in Sofia.
Velázquez’s team have looked best when they defend through control rather than simply through numbers.
Tactical Analysis
How Kairat May Play
Kairat used a 4-3-3 structure in Sofia, with Temirlan Anarbekov in goal and a defensive line containing Luís Mata, Martynovich, Mrynskiy and Lucas Áfrico.
Oksanen, Baibek, Jukkola and Mendonça occupied the midfield and supporting areas, while Edmilson and former Levski striker Marc Gual provided the main attacking threat.
The return requires more aggression from the midfield.
Oksanen cannot spend the entire match receiving the ball close to his centre-backs. Kairat need at least one midfielder positioned beyond Levski’s first line so that the home side can move possession into the attacking third with fewer passes.
Gual’s movement should also become more important.
He knows Bulgarian football and is capable of dropping away from the centre-backs before turning towards goal. If Kristian Dimitrov follows him too far, Edmilson or Jukkola can attack the space left behind.
The wide areas may provide Kairat’s best route.
Levski’s full-backs are comfortable moving forward. If Kairat regain possession quickly, there can be space outside Dimitrov and his central-defensive partner before the visitors reorganise.
Set pieces are another important weapon.
When an opponent needs to defend an aggregate lead away from home, corners and wide free kicks can quickly change the mood inside the stadium. Martynovich and Lucas Áfrico give Kairat good size inside the box.
Kairat should still avoid reckless pressing.
Levski have enough speed through Oko-Flex, Everton Bala, Serginho, Soula and Reinaldo to attack the space behind an advanced defensive line.
The ideal scenario for Kairat is an early spell of pressure without losing their defensive balance.
How Levski May Play
Levski’s starting shape can be described as 4-3-3, but Velázquez regularly adjusts it during the match.
In Sofia, Vutsov started behind Centelles, Aldair, Nikola Serafimov and Kristian Dimitrov. Gasper Trdin, Mehdi Moubarik, Everton Bala and Serginho were involved through midfield and the attacking channels, with Oko-Flex and Reinaldo giving the team speed further forward.
Mazire Soula changed the match after coming on.
He entered at half-time and eventually supplied the pass for Serginho’s stoppage-time winner. His ability to carry possession and find passes between defenders gives Velázquez a strong case for starting him in Turkistan.
Levski’s biggest tactical mistake would be defending the 1-0 aggregate lead from the first whistle.
They should instead use possession to take energy out of Kairat’s press.
Trdin and Moubarik can drop close to the centre-backs, while Serginho or Soula receives higher between the lines. When Kairat push extra players forward, one clean pass can release Oko-Flex or Reinaldo into open space.
The visitors should especially target the period immediately after Kairat lose possession.
The Kazakh side will have to send more bodies forward than they did in Sofia. Their full-backs will advance and at least one midfielder will move beyond Oksanen. That naturally creates the spaces Levski’s quickest players prefer.
Reinaldo does not necessarily need ten chances.
One clear counterattack could change the entire tie.
If Levski score first, Kairat would need three unanswered goals to qualify in normal time. That makes an away goal almost as valuable psychologically as it is mathematically.
Key Players
Marc Gual – Kairat Almaty
Gual is one of Kairat’s most experienced attacking players and will be particularly motivated against his former club.
In Sofia he received too little service to influence the match consistently. The return leg must be different.
Kairat need him closer to Edmilson and closer to the penalty area rather than isolated against two defenders.
His movement between the lines could be particularly useful if Levski’s midfield drops too deep.
Edmilson – Kairat Almaty
Edmilson gives Kairat speed and direct running.
He was involved throughout the earlier qualifying rounds and is part of Kairat’s current UEFA attacking group.
Against Levski, his job is not only to receive the ball with his back to goal. He needs to attack behind the full-backs and make the Bulgarian defence turn towards its own goalkeeper.
Janne-Pekka Oksanen – Kairat Almaty
Oksanen is central to Kairat’s possession game.
If Levski successfully prevent him from receiving comfortably, Kairat can become too direct. His passing must move the home team from the first phase into attacking positions faster than it did in Sofia.
Aleksandr Martynovich – Kairat Almaty
Martynovich provides experience and organisation at the back.
The veteran defender will have a particularly difficult task if Kairat increase their defensive line and leave more space behind them.
He must decide when to step towards Reinaldo and when to remain deeper to protect against Oko-Flex and Serginho.
Serginho – Levski Sofia
Serginho is the obvious headline player after the first leg.
His 92nd-minute finish gave Levski the advantage they deserved and continued an impressive start after arriving during the summer. The Portuguese midfielder has already scored important goals in both European and domestic competition.
His ability to move between midfield and attack is especially useful for this second leg.
Kairat cannot simply assign a centre-back to him because he frequently starts from deeper positions.
Svetoslav Vutsov – Levski Sofia
Vutsov did not have to make a save in the first leg because Kairat failed to register an effort on target.
He should expect a busier evening in Turkistan.
His performance against Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Friday was encouraging, particularly his late interventions while Levski protected their lead.
Reinaldo – Levski Sofia
Reinaldo has quickly become one of Levski’s most dangerous forwards.
He joined during the summer after playing in Portugal and has already scored in both European and domestic competition. His pace is particularly suited to a match in which Kairat eventually have to take greater risks.
He may spend parts of the match without much service, but the second half could open perfectly for his style.
Mazire Soula – Levski Sofia
Soula may become one of the tactical keys to the return.
He assisted Serginho’s winner after entering during the first leg and also started Levski’s latest domestic victory.
His ball-carrying gives Levski a way to escape pressure without simply clearing possession.
Kristian Dimitrov – Levski Sofia
The captain has already produced an important European goal this season, scoring the winner in the first match against Universitatea Craiova.
In Turkistan his main responsibility is defensive leadership.
He must keep the line organised when Kairat increase the number of players around the box and avoid unnecessary fouls in dangerous crossing positions.
Expected Lineups
The expected teams are based primarily on the first leg and each club’s most recent confirmed selections.
Kairat Almaty Expected Lineup
Formation: 4-3-3
Temirlan Anarbekov;
Luís Mata, Aleksandr Martynovich, Lucas Áfrico, Aleksandr Mrynskiy;
Janne-Pekka Oksanen, Olzhas Baibek, Oiva Jukkola;
Gustavo Mendonça, Marc Gual, Edmilson.
Possible changes: Dastan Bekbolat and Damir Kassabulat both appeared from the bench in Sofia and could be considered if Urazbakhtin wants a more aggressive approach. Aleksandr Shirobokov and Erkin Tapalov are additional options.
The biggest tactical question is whether Kairat retain three central midfielders or sacrifice one for an additional forward.
Levski Sofia Expected Lineup
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Svetoslav Vutsov;
Aldair, Kristian Dimitrov, Christian Makoun, Alex Centelles;
Gasper Trdin, Mehdi Moubarik;
Armstrong Oko-Flex, Serginho, Mazire Soula;
Reinaldo.
Possible changes: Nikola Serafimov started the first leg and is a realistic option at centre-back. Everton Bala can start from either flank, while Juan Perea gives Velázquez a stronger physical centre-forward if he wants to hold the ball higher up the pitch.
The domestic lineup against Lokomotiv Plovdiv suggests that Velázquez had one eye on Kazakhstan. Several players central to the European plan were either rested initially or had their minutes controlled.
Head-to-Head
These clubs have only one completed competitive meeting.
Levski Sofia 1-0 Kairat Almaty – 4 August 2026
Goal: Serginho 90+2
Assist: Mazire Soula
The statistics were heavily in Levski’s favour:
- Possession: Levski 71% – 29% Kairat
- Total shots: Levski 11 – 1 Kairat
- Shots on target: Levski 4 – 0 Kairat
- Corners: Levski 7 – 1 Kairat
Kairat can take encouragement from one thing: despite being second best for most of the match, they are only one goal behind.
Levski can draw an equally obvious conclusion. If they reproduce even part of the first-leg control and add a counterattacking goal, Kairat’s task becomes extremely difficult.
Betting Markets
At the time of this update, reliable second-leg prices were not being indexed consistently enough across major comparison services for me to present one bookmaker quote as the definitive current market.
For that reason, the recommendations below use minimum acceptable odds. That is more useful than attaching false precision to a price that may already have moved.
Kairat Almaty to Win
Kairat should be far more aggressive than they were in Sofia.
They have a strong domestic record, significant European experience and only need a one-goal win to keep the tie alive beyond 90 minutes.
The problems are equally clear.
They created almost nothing in the first leg and are playing away from their usual Almaty stadium. Levski also arrive unbeaten in Champions League qualifying.
Verdict: Only interesting if the price reaches approximately 2.25 or higher.
Levski Double Chance – X2
This is the simplest way to back the overall direction of the analysis.
Levski do not need to win. A draw takes them through, and their current form suggests they have enough control and attacking quality to avoid defeat.
The first-leg statistics are particularly difficult to ignore.
Verdict: Strong option at 1.65 or higher.
Levski Asian Handicap +0.5
This is effectively the same result requirement as the double chance: the bet wins if Levski win or draw.
For readers comparing Football Asian Handicap Predictions, this line makes more sense than trying to predict whether Kairat’s urgency will actually turn into a home victory.
Levski controlled the first match, have not lost in five Champions League qualifiers and have enough counterattacking pace to punish Kairat once the game opens.
Verdict: Best market if available at 1.70 or higher.
Under 2.5 Goals
There is a strong argument for another low-scoring game.
Three of Kairat’s last four Champions League matches in normal time have finished 0-1, 1-0 and 0-1. The Kazakh side also know that conceding first would completely change their task.
Levski have no reason to chase the match recklessly.
They can remain compact, keep possession when possible and force Kairat to take the larger risks.
Verdict: Strong secondary selection at 1.75 or higher.
Both Teams to Score – No
Kairat did not register a shot on target in Sofia.
Levski have also kept clean sheets in three of their five Champions League qualifying matches this summer.
The obvious danger is match state.
If Kairat score first, Levski have to become more adventurous. If Levski score first, the home side have no choice but to attack.
Verdict: Interesting at 1.85 or higher, but slightly riskier than Under 2.5.
Draw
A draw is a very logical correct-result angle.
Kairat must attack, but Levski do not need to chase a victory. The visitors’ counterattacking threat should also prevent the hosts from throwing every player forward.
A 0-0 or 1-1 result sends Levski through.
Verdict: Worth considering at 3.10 or higher for a smaller stake.
Kairat to Win by Exactly One Goal
This is the scenario that takes the tie to extra time.
It may appeal at a large price because Kairat have already produced a 1-0 home victory against Omonia this season.
However, the first-leg performance against Levski makes it difficult to use as a primary bet.
Verdict: High-risk correct-margin market only.
Best Bet
Levski Asian Handicap +0.5
The preferred selection for Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia is:
Levski Sofia AH +0.5 – take at odds of 1.70 or higher
The main reason is not simply the 1-0 aggregate advantage.
It is how the first leg was played.
Levski controlled 71% of possession, produced 11 of the 12 shots, recorded all four attempts on target and allowed Kairat almost no meaningful attacking threat.
One match does not guarantee another identical performance.
Kairat will be more aggressive, and the long journey into Kazakhstan gives Levski a different physical challenge. The hosts have also shown that they can produce strong performances in European home matches.
But Levski do not need to reproduce 71% possession.
They only need enough control to avoid defeat.
Their form gives confidence. They are unbeaten across five Champions League qualifiers and have won all four domestic league matches at the beginning of the new season. Several European starters also had their minutes managed against Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Friday.
The venue switch matters as well.
Kairat are technically the home team, but Turkistan Arena is not their normal base in Almaty. That reduces some of the familiarity usually built into a difficult trip to Kazakhstan.
Within Champions League predictions Malaysia, the temptation may be to chase a larger price on Kairat because they must win. Motivation, however, is not the same thing as probability.
Their need to attack can actually help Levski.
Oko-Flex, Reinaldo, Serginho and Soula are all dangerous when there is space behind an opponent. The longer the match stays level, the more Kairat have to expose themselves.
Best Bet: Levski Sofia AH +0.5
Minimum acceptable odds: 1.70
Score Prediction
Kairat Almaty 1-1 Levski Sofia
I expect Kairat to produce considerably more attacking pressure than they did in Bulgaria.
They cannot accept another match with one shot and no efforts on target. Gual, Edmilson and the midfielders should play closer together, while the full-backs will move higher.
That should eventually produce chances.
It should also produce space for Levski.
The visitors have looked comfortable in transition throughout the early part of the season. Serginho and Soula can carry the ball through midfield, while Reinaldo and Oko-Flex have the speed to attack a defence moving towards the halfway line.
A first-half 0-0 would increasingly favour Levski.
Kairat would then have only 45 minutes to save the tie and would have to become more adventurous.
My expectation is that both teams find one goal, leaving Levski in control of the aggregate score.
Correct score prediction: Kairat Almaty 1-1 Levski Sofia
Alternative prediction: Kairat Almaty 0-1 Levski Sofia
Aggregate prediction: Kairat Almaty 1-2 Levski Sofia
Qualification prediction: Levski Sofia
FAQ
When is Kairat Almaty vs Levski Sofia?
The second leg will be played on Tuesday, 11 August 2026. UEFA scheduled the Champions League third qualifying round second legs for that date.
What time does Kairat vs Levski start?
Kick-off is scheduled for 20:00 local time in Kazakhstan and 18:00 in Bulgaria.
Where will Kairat vs Levski be played?
The match will be played at Turkistan Arena, rather than Kairat’s regular Central Stadium in Almaty.
What was the first-leg result?
Levski won 1-0 in Sofia. Serginho scored the winner in the 92nd minute after an assist from Mazire Soula.
Who dominated the first leg?
Levski had 71% possession and led 11-1 in total shots, 4-0 in shots on target and 7-1 in corners.
What do Kairat need to qualify?
Kairat need to win by at least two goals during normal time to qualify directly. A one-goal Kairat victory would level the aggregate score and take the tie into extra time.
What do Levski need to qualify?
Any Levski victory or draw sends the Bulgarian champions into the Champions League play-off round.
What happens to the losing team?
The defeated club from a Champions Path third qualifying round tie drops into the UEFA Europa League play-off round.
What is Levski’s recent form?
Levski are unbeaten in five Champions League qualifiers and have opened the Bulgarian league season with four consecutive victories. Their most recent domestic result was a 2-0 win against Lokomotiv Plovdiv on 7 August.
Who scored Levski’s latest league goals?
David Kusso opened the scoring against Lokomotiv Plovdiv, while Reinaldo made it 2-0 in stoppage time. Both arrived during Levski’s summer recruitment.
What is the best bet?
Levski Sofia +0.5 Asian Handicap at odds of 1.70 or higher is the preferred selection.
What is the predicted score?
The prediction is Kairat Almaty 1-1 Levski Sofia.
Who is predicted to qualify?
Levski Sofia are predicted to advance, with a projected aggregate score of 2-1.
Conclusion
Kairat are still very much alive in this tie.
A 1-0 deficit is recoverable, and they have already shown this season that they can respond to a first-leg defeat. They lost 1-0 to Omonia before winning the return by the same score and eventually progressing on penalties.
The difference is that their performance in Sofia offered very little attacking encouragement.
Twenty-nine percent possession, one shot and zero efforts on target are not numbers Kairat can repeat when they now need to score.
They will have to push higher.
That changes the matchup in Levski’s favour in one important way: space.
Velázquez has quick attackers, midfielders who are comfortable carrying possession and enough squad depth to introduce fresh counterattacking players during the second half.
Levski also arrive with confidence.
They have not lost a Champions League qualifier this summer and have won all four domestic league matches. Friday’s victory gave Velázquez an opportunity to keep winning while managing several players ahead of the long trip east.
The venue in Turkistan is another small but meaningful factor.
Kairat retain the advantage of playing in Kazakhstan, but this is not their usual Almaty home ground. Levski also travelled two days before kick-off rather than arriving at the last moment.
For readers evaluating Football Asian Handicap Predictions, Levski +0.5 is the line that best reflects the situation. It does not require the Bulgarian side to win in Kazakhstan; it simply asks them to avoid a defeat.
Kairat should create more than they did in Sofia, and I would not be surprised to see the home side score.
The visitors should have opportunities of their own once the match opens.
That points towards a 1-1 draw, with Levski protecting the advantage they earned in Sofia and moving one round away from the Champions League league phase.
Final prediction: Draw
Qualification prediction: Levski Sofia
Best Bet: Levski Sofia AH +0.5 at odds of 1.70 or higher
Correct Score Prediction: Kairat Almaty 1-1 Levski Sofia